Models
The models behind Newral's research
Newral's research is built on a set of proprietary models covering macro, markets and commodities. Nowcasts, a central bank assessment and a business cycle map read the US and the Euro Area. Trend-follower positioning, a flow simulator, cross-asset fair value, narrative tracking and a fragility monitor read market structure. A structural scenario simulator traces how shocks travel through the economy, and a weather and crop stack covers agricultural markets. Each page explains what a model answers and how it works.
CTA positioning
CTA positioning is an estimate of how systematic trend-following funds are likely to be positioned in a futures market, based on the price trends those funds follow.
CTA flow simulator
The CTA flow simulator estimates how trend-following positions could change over the next ten trading sessions if prices rise, fall or stay flat.
Systematic fair value
Systematic fair value is an estimate of where an asset should trade given the forces that move markets as a whole.
GDP and inflation nowcasts
A nowcast is an estimate of an economic figure for the current period, made before the official statistic is published.
Central bank assessment
Central bank assessment compares how the economy has moved since the Fed and the ECB last met with how far rate markets have repriced over the same period.
Narrative virality
Narrative virality measures how fast a market story is gaining or losing attention in financial news, relative to its own history.
Market fragility
Market fragility measures how vulnerable diversification is to a shock.
Macro scenario simulator
A macro scenario simulator traces how an economic shock, such as a policy tightening, a fiscal boost or an oil shock, would move output, inflation, interest rates and wages over the following quarters.
Business cycle map
The business cycle map shows where the US and the Euro Area sit in their growth cycle.
Weather and crop intelligence
Weather and crop intelligence links growing conditions in the world's main crop regions to agricultural markets.