Coverage

    What we cover.

    The economy, financial markets and physical commodities — analysed together, because each moves the others.

    Layer one

    Macro & policy

    Focused on the United States and the Euro Area.

    Growth & cycle

    GDP nowcasts, business-cycle position, recession probability and the labour market.

    How it works

    Inflation

    Inflation nowcasts and the pressures behind upcoming readings.

    How it works

    Central banks

    Our assessment of the Fed and ECB, policy paths against market pricing, and policy-rule benchmarks.

    How it works

    Financial conditions & liquidity

    Whether conditions amplify or restrain the macro view.

    Scenarios

    How shocks travel through households, firms, inflation and policy.

    How it works

    Layer two

    Financial markets

    Global coverage across the major asset classes.

    Rates

    Curves, term premium and fair value.

    Equities

    Market internals, dispersion, sector stretch and company-level assessment for covered US equities.

    Credit

    Financing conditions and signs of stress or resilience.

    Energy & metals

    Valuation, supply, positioning and the global cycle.

    Positioning & flows

    Trend-follower estimates, futures positioning, fund flows and crowding.

    How it works

    Event risk

    Geopolitical and scheduled risks, with market-implied probabilities.

    Nikkei 225 versus model fair value, May to October 2024
    Nikkei 225 and its systematic fair value — what the model showed, and what happened next. Example from summer 2024.

    Layer three

    Agriculture & commodities

    Grains, oilseeds and related markets, from the field to the futures curve.

    Weather & crops

    16 key crop regions tracked against more than 30 years of history, plus global crop balances.

    How it works

    Demand & trade

    Importers, exporters, feed and processing demand.

    Freight & costs

    Shipping, fertiliser, energy and currencies.

    Policy & geopolitics

    Export restrictions, tariffs, conflict and their effect on supply.

    Positioning

    How funds and trend followers are positioned in agricultural futures.

    Agriculture & commodities

    Connected

    Why we analyse them together.

    Currencies and grain

    A stronger dollar makes US grain more expensive abroad and shifts export demand.

    Weather and inflation

    A failed harvest can lift food prices and change what central banks do next.

    Rates and positioning

    A repricing of interest rates can force systematic funds to trade across every asset class.

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