GDP and inflation nowcasts for the US and the Euro Area
A nowcast is an estimate of an economic figure for the current period, made before the official statistic is published. Newral's nowcasts estimate current-quarter GDP growth and the next consumer price inflation print for the US and the Euro Area. They update as monthly activity data, surveys and market prices arrive, so the growth and inflation picture is available weeks before the official release.
See the current GDP nowcastsThe question it answers
How fast are the US and Euro Area economies growing right now, and where is the next inflation print likely to land?
How it works
The growth nowcast draws on a broad set of early information: official monthly statistics on activity, spending, employment and trade, business and consumer surveys, and financial market prices. Newral's proprietary model combines these inputs, which arrive at different times and frequencies, into an estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth. The headline changes when new information about the real economy arrives, and readings that fail quality checks are withheld rather than published. The inflation nowcast estimates the next headline and core consumer price print, and it updates during the month as energy markets and other timely inputs move, so the estimate stays current between official releases. Each estimate carries an uncertainty range. For the US, a data surprise index compares recent releases with Newral's own nowcasts.
What you see in the portal
- Current-quarter GDP growth estimates for the US and the Euro Area, each with an uncertainty range
- A momentum label for growth: accelerating, slowing or steady
- Headline and core inflation estimates for the next print, month on month and year on year
- An inflation pressure tag summarising the broader backdrop
- Nowcast history for each economy and, for the US, a data surprise index measured against Newral's nowcasts
How clients use it
- Frame rate expectations before key releases rather than after them.
- Judge whether growth momentum is improving or rolling over while official data are still weeks away.
- Compare the inflation estimate with what rates markets imply ahead of a Fed or ECB meeting.
Frequently asked questions
- What is a GDP nowcast?
- A GDP nowcast is an estimate of economic growth in the current quarter, made before the official GDP figure is published. It uses monthly data that arrive earlier, such as industrial production, retail sales, employment and business surveys, to infer what quarterly output is doing. Newral publishes growth nowcasts for the US and the Euro Area, each with an uncertainty range.
- How does an inflation nowcast work?
- An inflation nowcast estimates the next consumer price print before it is published. Newral's model combines the most recent official price data with timely inputs such as energy markets, so the estimate updates during the month rather than only when official figures arrive. The result is an estimate of headline and core inflation for the next print, month on month and year on year.
- How often are the nowcasts updated?
- The growth nowcast updates when new real-economy data are released; market moves alone do not change the headline. The inflation nowcast is re-estimated every weekday as timely inputs move, which matters most early in the month, when little official information about the coming print is available.
- Which economies do Newral's nowcasts cover?
- Newral's nowcasts focus on the US and the Euro Area, the two economies where the depth and timeliness of the underlying data support a consistent current read. The same growth nowcasts also feed Newral's central bank assessment, which compares the data since the last Fed and ECB meetings with market pricing.