Systematic fair value report

Prices can drift far from what fundamentals support. This report highlights the largest rich and cheap readings across markets against their fundamental anchors, how far each has stretched, and what could bring it back.

The models behind this research: Systematic fair value.

Structure

What's inside

Key messages: the most stretched markets, rich and cheap, stated up front.
Evidence: each market against its fundamental anchors, and how the gap has developed.
Context: why a gap has opened and whether it is widening or narrowing.
Implications: what the readings mean for positioning and risk.
What would change our view: the developments that would close or widen a gap.

Edition of 5 October 2026

Philippine peso: fair value has risen and spot has not followed

Key messages

USD/PHP trades about 1.8% below our fair-value estimate, more than twice the usual size of its gap.
Fair value has risen about 3.5% since late August while spot barely moved; US real yields and credit conditions account for almost all of the shift.
USD/MXN remains the most stretched reliable reading on our screen, while three dollar crosses sit just past two standard deviations cheap.
Gaps are only read where the model's fit is statistically reliable; everything else is marked as model off.

USD/PHP spot, fair value and normal range, 2026 — USD/PHP: fair value has climbed while spot stalled. Data as of 2 October 2026.

Largest reliable gaps to fair value in standard deviations — The largest reliable gaps to fair value across markets, in standard deviations. Data as of 2 October 2026.

From the model overview

The complete valuation map: every tracked market against its fair value, normal range, gap, z-score and whether the model's read is reliable.

FX valuation map: latest, fair value, bands, gap, z-score and read — FX: complete valuation map. Data as of 2 October 2026.

Commodities valuation map — Commodities: complete valuation map. Data as of 2 October 2026.

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The full report, including every market, is in the sample.