Cross-asset report

Markets rarely move in isolation. This report brings together what changed across rates, FX, equities, credit and commodities, connects it to the economy and policy, and sets out what it means for the decisions in front of you.

The models behind this research: Business cycle map and Central bank assessment.

Structure

What's inside

Key messages: the conclusions first, across asset classes.
Evidence: the data, models and market signals behind each view, including those that cut against it.
Connections: how moves in one market feed into others.
Implications: what it means for markets and portfolios.
What would change our view: the developments that would make us think again.

Edition of 5 October 2026

The labour market has cracked and the forced bond sellers are spent

Key messages

The economy is turning before inflation does: payrolls collapsed, an October hike is priced out, and our cycle map now reads contraction.
Bonds have not believed it yet: short-dated Treasuries track the policy path, while oil and supply drive the long end.
Trend followers are at the maximum short in 10-year notes, so the remaining flow risk is buying, not selling.
Oil is the main risk to the view: its fair value has climbed much faster than its price.

Short-dated US Treasuries price versus fair value, 2026 — Short-dated Treasuries have tracked the policy path; the sell-off sits in long maturities. Data as of 5 October 2026.

Distribution of estimated trend-follower flows in 10-year Treasury notes — Trend followers are at the maximum short in 10-year notes, so the flow risk is buying. Data as of 5 October 2026.

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